EUR/USD has gone into a consolidation phase following Thursday's rebound. Trading action is likely to remain subdued on the last trading day of 2022. 1.0680 aligns as immediate resistance for the pair. EUR/USD has lost its bullish momentum and retreated to the 1.0650 area after having registered modest gains on Thursday. In the absence of high-impact macroeconomic data releases, investors are unlikely to commit to large positions on the last trading day of the year. Hence, EUR/USD should continue to fluctuate in its weekly range. The positive shift witnessed in the risk mood on Thursday made it difficult for the US Dollar to find demand and helped EUR/USD push higher. Bargain shopping ahead of the New Year holiday may have triggered the rally in Wall Street's main indexes as there were no apparent fundamental drivers that could have impacted the sentiment in a significant way. On Friday, the only data from the euro area revealed that the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices in Spain declined to 5.6% on a yearly basis in December's flash reading from 6.7% in November. This data, however, failed to influence the Euro's performance against its rivals in a noticeable way. The ISM Chigao's Purchasing Managers Index for December will be the only data featured in the US economic docket. US stock index futures are down between 0.25% and 0.5%, suggesting that the US Dollar could hold its ground in the second half of the day in case the mood sours. Nevertheless, with the US bond markets closing early on Friday, it wouldn't be surprising to see choppy action in EUR/USD. EUR/USD Technical Analysis EUR/USD's action on Thursday confirmed 1.0680 (static level, end-point of the latest uptrend) as strong resistance ahead of 1.0700 (psychological level) and 1.0735 (December 15 high). On the downside, 1.0625 (50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA)) aligns as first support before 1.0600 (100-period SMA). A four-hour close below the latter could attract sellers and open the door for an extended slide toward 1.0580 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) and 1.0500 (psychological level, 200-period SMA).

There's no question, 2022 will go down in history as one of the most profitable years ever for commodity traders, however 2023 is projected to be even bigger! This is now the second consecutive year that has seen a total of 27 commodities ranging from the metals, energies to agriculture tallying up astronomical double to triple digit gains – outperforming every other asset class out there! According Goldman Sachs, the macroeconomic backdrop for Commodities in 2023 is looking more bullish than ever before in history – ultimately indicating that we could be on the verge of another record-setting year ahead. In a note to clients, the bank's analysts wrote that "underinvestment in new capacity, economic stagflation, China's reopening, coupled with a slowing of global central bank rate hikes, leading to the eventual end of rate hikes next year and signs of a dollar peak will power monumental gains across the entire Commodities complex". The bank's analysts went on to say that "the setup for Commodities in 2023 is more bullish than it has ever been since they first highlighted the Supercycle in late 2020". The Wall Street bank concluded by reconfirming their view that "we're still only at the first inning of a multi-year, potentially decade-long Commodities Supercycle". The last time Commodities significantly outperformed every other class – over a series of consecutive back-to-back years – was during the previous two Supercycles in the 1970s and the 2000s. History suggests we are now at the forefront of a third Commodities Supercycle – which also brings with it one of the biggest wealth creation opportunities the world has seen. And they are certainly not alone with their bullish outlook. We are beginning to see more and more of the world's most powerful financial institutions releasing their 2023  forecasts – with "extremely bullish" calls for Commodity prices to hit fresh record highs in the year ahead as the Supercycle continues to gather massive momentum. Last week JP Morgan, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley – also joined the list with their outlook that 2023 is set to be another blockbuster year for Commodities due to all the macroeconomic events that are currently unfolding. Extraordinary times create extraordinary opportunities and right now, as traders we are amidst one of the greatest eras of wealth creation the world has seen. Whichever way you look at it, the case for Commodities in a well-diversified portfolio has never been more obvious than it is right now! Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.0639 New coronavirus-related concerns undermine the market mood in thin trading. EU November M3 Money Supply rose 4.8% YoY, beating expectations. EUR/USD is losing upward momentum, but bears are nowhere to be found. The EUR/USD pair keeps trading within familiar levels on Thursday, bottoming during the Asian session at 1.0605 and peaking during European hours at 1.0657. Trading remains choppy amid a scarce economic calendar and due to the winter holidays in the Northern Hemisphere, although the market sentiment continues to deteriorate. The latest news from China does not seem encouraging as the number of coronavirus cases has multiplied while the government moves away from its zero-covid policy. Italy reported that roughly 50% of the passengers of two flights arriving in Milan on Wednesday tested positive for COVID-19, and several western nations rushed to impose control on Chinese travellers, fearing a new strain could break the delicate balance in which they are living. It is still to be seen whether these latest developments will have long-lasting effects on growth and inflation. Meanwhile, China’s State Council announced it would adjust import and export tariffs of some goods starting January 1, detailing raising export tariffs on aluminium and aluminium alloys. On the data front, the EU published November M3 Money Supply, which rose 4.8% YoY, beating expectations. The US will later release Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended December 23. EUR/USD short-term technical outlook The EUR/USD pair trades around 1.0640, with the picture unchanged from the previous updates. Technical readings in the daily chart show that the pair has lost upward momentum, although the risk remains skewed to the upside. In the mentioned time frame, the pair develops above all of its moving averages, with a bullish 20 SMA providing dynamic support at around 1.0600. The longer moving averages, in the meantime, lack directional strength far below the shorter one. Finally, technical indicators remain flat, with the Momentum just above its midline but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding near overbought readings. In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the pair retains the neutral stance. EUR/USD develops above a mildly bullish 20 SMA, while the 100 SMA heads nowhere below it. The 200 SMA, however, maintains its bullish slope far below the latter. Technical indicators have turned south but lack enough strength and are stuck to their midlines, reflecting the absence of speculative interest. Support levels: 1.0610 1.0580 1.0535 Resistance levels: 1.0660 1.0695 1.0740   View Live Chart for the EUR/USD 

US stocks are trading markedly higher on Thursday as sentiment rebounds on the back of higher-than-expected weekly jobless claims -- amidst little liquidity on the final days of trading for this year. Indeed it's back to the ole faithful; "bad news is good." Investors are heaving a sigh of relief on the penultimate trading day of 2022, with stocks recovering much of the losses we've seen over the past few sessions. Considering the market news was sparse, the shift higher has the hallmarks of a dead cat bounce. Still, by the same token, what little information we have had -- namely, the weekly jobless claims -- especially with investors devoid of holiday cheer, could be just what the markets doctor ordered to close out the year on a slightly better note.  Coming on the heels of last week's relatively benign PCE print, investors may be taking solace in this week's Goldilocks jobless claims as it suggests that the labour market is cooling, which is necessary to curb inflation. Even though most don't see Captain Sully in Chair Powell, with very few anticipating a soft landing, a cooling labour market, and lower inflation, suggest that the Fed is on a suitable glide path. Keeping in mind that the flight plan is still very high altitude  Turning our focus back to markets, the long-duration sections are all up more than 2%. However, how much does this have to do with year-end housekeeping dynamics, especially with the hopelessly skewed signal-to-noise ratio in favour of noise? Thursday's price action was more likely just a product of illiquidity and other year-end dynamics. One piece of actually constructive news, or non-news, was the absence of any negative headlines from locales where Chinese travellers are arriving fresh from three years of forced travel hiatus. OIL  As we saw in oil markets yesterday, poor liquidity can easily amplify the downside, effectively transforming a mild holiday hangover into a significant downdraft.  But unquestionably, the short-term backdrop for oil has become more challenging, especially to equate supply and demand hence price discovery with rising COVID cases in China amidst a push to reopen, combined with Russia's ban on selling oil to countries that impose a price cap.  While this adds volatility to oil prices and supports the roller-coaster narrative well into 2023, we think the slightest recovery in Chinese mobility data in January will spark a sizable rally as traders will start to see the forest from the trees confirming that Chinese demand is finally beginning to make progress on the long road to trend. As we opined yesterday, oil markets will only turn upside down if China's policy U-turns and moves back into lockdown mode. And we think this is an improbable scenario with daily peak COVID caseloads in sight. FOREX The good news for the EURO is that European gas imports via LNG tankers could hit 20 bcm for the first time in December, helping the region get through winter largely without Russian imports.

AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6782 The upbeat tone of US equities helped AUD/USD recover from a fresh weekly low. Softer-than-expected Hong Kong data weighed on the pair at the beginning of the day. AUD/USD turned bullish in the near term, next resistance at 0.6810. Asian news undermined demand for the AUD throughout the first half of the day, with AUD/USD   pressured by a risk-averse environment. The pair bottomed at 0.6709, changing courses in the last trading session of the day to post an intraday high of 0.6784. It trades a handful of pips below the latter, in line with another leg north. At the beginning of the day, the Aussie was affected by news indicating that Hong Kong's exports plunged by the most in seven decades in November, affected by diminished global demand. The headline spurred risk aversion and sent global indexes into the red. The better market mood amid US indexes' comeback underpinned AUD/USD during the American afternoon. However, Wall Street shrugged off the negative tone and picked up, putting pressure on the American currency. Data-wise, there's nothing on the Australian docket until next week.   AUDUSD short-term technical outlook The  AUD/USD pair is neutral-to-bullish according to technical readings in the daily chart. It has managed to advance above a still flat 20 SMA, while the 200 SMA maintains its bearish slope above the current level, providing dynamic resistance at around 0.6870. The Momentum indicator remains directionless at around its 100 level, while the RSI picked up, advancing at around 56. AUD/USD turned bullish in the near term. In the 4-hour chart, the pair is above all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA advancing above the longer ones. Still, moving averages remain confined to a tight range, reflecting the absence of a clear trend. At the same time, technical indicators stand within positive levels, with the Momentum advancing and the RSI consolidating around 61. Support levels: 0.6750 0.6715 0.6670 Resistance levels: 0.6810 0.6850 0.6890 View Live Chart for the AUD/USD

We're seeing choppy trade in financial markets on Wednesday in what is always quite thin trade as traders continue the festivities into the new year. And there's certainly a strong sense of holiday trade to the markets today, with light news flow combined with lower liquidity creating choppy but ultimately insignificant moves. It very much feels like we're now just drifting into 2023 at which point I expect things will quickly pick up again. The key trading themes will continue to dominate in early January, most notably how far central banks are willing to push interest rates in order to display their determination to get inflation back to target. Many have already started easing off the brake and we're seeing plenty of signs of pressures easing, albeit perhaps not as much as policymakers would have liked by now. Still, the risks now appear very much tilted to the downside as far as hikes are concerned against the backdrop of a very aggressive tightening in a short period of time and with many countries facing recession. Having started too late, central banks are now at risk of tightening too much and therefore overcompensating for a sloppy start with a painful exit. China key to oil prices Oil prices are paring recent gains in the middle of the week, slipping more than 2% after recovering strongly over the last few weeks. The outlook remains highly uncertain for the oil market and recent sanctions by the G7 and countermeasures by the Kremlin do little to change that at the moment. Both will only be tested if crude prices rise to the point that Russian crude is trading uncomfortably close to the $60 cap or should be above, which is not the case right now. So as it is, it's all theoretical. China's success in pivoting away from zero-Covid could be key to all of this but with trustworthy data on the spread since restrictions were eased hard to come by, we may have to wait some time to fully understand the implications for the economy and therefore oil demand. ​ Holding gains for now Gold is trading around $1,800, the level it's largely fluctuated around throughout December. Whether it's a reflection of traders not buying the Fed's hawkish determination or bulls being unwilling to give up on the recovery rally, it's continuing to hang on in there, albeit on ever-weakening momentum. We could see a correction early in the new year in the absence of a dovish shift in the Fed commentary or some favourable economic data. Treading water Bitcoin has been treading water over the festive period and I'm sure the crypto community will be perfectly happy about that. It's not been an easy few months and the next few could prove to be challenging as well. It's become a matter of damage limitation for the industry and the hope that the storm has now passed with another not quickly behind it.