US non-farm payrolls (Nov) – 08/12 – Last month's October jobs report was the first one this year when the headline number came in below market expectations, though not by enough to raise concerns over the resilience of the US economy. Unlike September, when US jobs surged by 297k, jobs growth slowed in October to 150k, while the unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.9%, in a sign that the US economy is now starting to slow in a manner that will please the US central bank. Combined with a similarly weak ADP report the same week, where jobs growth slowed to 113k, and a softer ISM services survey yields have slipped back significantly from their October peaks, as well as being below the levels they were a month ago in a sign that the market thinks that rate hikes are done and has now moved on to when to expect rate cuts. This is the next challenge for the US central bank who will be keen to continue to push the higher for longer rates mantra. It's also worth noting that JOLTS job openings are still at elevated levels of 9.55m, and weekly jobless claims continue to trend at around 210k which means the Fed still has plenty of leeway to push back on current market pricing on rate cuts. Expectations are for 200k jobs to be added in November; however, it should also be remembered that a lot of additional hiring takes place in the weeks leading up to Thanksgiving and the Christmas period so we're unlikely to see any evidence of cracking in the US labour market this side of 2024.        Services PMIs (Nov) – 05/12 – While manufacturing activity in Europe appears to be bottoming out, the same can't be said for the services sector which on the basis of recent inflation data is experiencing sticky levels of inflation, which is prompting a continued hawkish narrative from the ECB despite rising evidence that the bloc is already in contraction and possible recession as well. Recent data from the French economy showed economic activity contracted in Q3 and there has been little evidence of an improvement in Q4. The recent flash PMIs showed that services activity remained stuck in the low 45's, although economic activity does appear to be improving, edging higher to 48.7. The UK economy appears to be more resilient where was saw a recovery into expansion territory in the recent flash numbers to 50.5. The main concern is that the resilience shown by the likes of Spain and Italy as their tourism season winds down appears to have gone after Italy fell sharply in October to 47.7, while Spain was steady at 51.1.   RBA rate decision – 05/12 – Back in November the RBA took the decision diverge from its peers and hike rates again, by 25bps to 4.35%, after 5 months of keeping it at 4.10%. In a sign that this could well be the last hike the guidance was tweaked from "further monetary tightening may be required" to "whether monetary tightening may be required" which at the time sent the Australian dollar sharply lower, although the recent weakness in the US dollar has seen the Aussie recover since then. Despite increasing evidence that inflation is slowing in the global economy the RBA clearly felt it necessary to close the gap on its peers when it comes to rate policy, in a sign that perhaps they are concerned about domestic price pressures. That said we are already seeing the economic numbers in China starting to respond to the piecemeal measures by authorities there to stimulate the economy, although the improvements have been fairly modest. We also saw another upside surprise in headline CPI, while Q2 GDP came in at 0.4%, above forecasts of 0.2% to the economy continues to remain resilient. No changes to policy are expected this week, however some ex-RBA staffers have suggested that we could see another rate hike if wages growth continues to remain strong. China Trade (Nov) – 07/12 – The recent set of Chinese Q3 GDP numbers pointed to a modest pickup in economic activity over the quarter in a sign that we are starting to see an improvement in the underlying numbers underpinning the Chinese economy. The recent October trade numbers helped to support the idea of a modest improvement however they don't change the fact that the economy still has some way to go when it comes to domestic demand which has remained subdued over the last 6 months. In October Chinese import data broke a run of 10 consecutive negative months by rising 3% in a sign that perhaps domestic demand is returning, beating forecasts of a 5% decline. Slightly more worrying was a bigger than expected decline in exports which fell -6.4%, the 6th month in a...

Despite more recent weakness in the oil market, a tight balance in the second half of next year should see prices trade higher. Meanwhile, we expect Europe to end the 2023/24 winter with comfortable gas storage. In the metals market, we see gold prices hitting record levels in 2024 as the Federal Reserve starts to cut rates. Oil back above $90 in second half of 2024 The oil market is expected to be largely balanced over the first half of 2024 if Saudi Arabia extends its additional voluntary supply cut through until the end of the year's first quarter. Doing so should ensure that Brent remains above US$80/bbl over the first half of the year. However, we do forecast a tighter market through the latter part of 2024 and, as a result, expect Brent to average a little over US$90/bbl in the second half of next year. A key downside risk is if the Saudis decide against rolling over their voluntary cuts. This would be a strange move, given the effort they have put in this year to support the market –although there are signs of growing disagreement between some OPEC members. While geopolitical tensions have eased somewhat – at least for the oil market – this can change quickly and so remains an upside risk. In addition, the potential for stricter and more effective enforcement of US sanctions against Iran would leave upside to our current forecasts. European natural gas storage to remain comfortable through 23/24 winter European gas storage started the 2023/24 heating season full, and up until now, storage is drawing at a slow pace. This means that it remains at record highs for this time of year. Our balance shows that European storage is likely to end the heating season somewhere between 45-50% full. While this would be lower than the levels we ended last winter, it would be comfortably above the five-year average. This would make the job of refilling storage next summer much more manageable again and suggests that there is limited upside in European gas prices through much of 2024. We assume that European gas demand will remain at around 15% below the five-year average through until the end of March. However, it is important to point out that the European gas market remains vulnerable to any supply disruptions or demand spikes, particularly over the winter months. Gold to hit record levels in 2024 Gold prices have held up well this year, considering both the rates environment and the stronger US dollar. The market has seen significant ETF outflows, where higher real yields have made gold less attractive to the investment community. However, weak investment demand has been offset by strong central bank buying. We are bullish on gold through 2024 with the expectation that the US Federal Reserve will start to ease monetary policy throughout the year. Our US economist expects the Fed to cut rates by 150bp between the second quarter and the end of 2024. Lower rates and expectations for a weaker USD should see investment demand picking up once again. We also believe that central bank buying will remain robust next year. This will propel spot gold to record levels. We expect spot gold to average US$2,100/oz in the fourth quarter of 2024. The biggest risk to this view is rates staying higher for longer. Read the original analysis: Three calls for commodity markets

EUR/USD finds support near the 1.0780 area and stalls its recent pullback from a multi-month top. The upside potential seems limited amid a turnaround in the sentiment surrounding the greenback. The stellar US NFP report should allow Fed to keep hiking interest rates and favours the USD bulls. The EUR/USD pair witnessed heavy selling for the second straight day on Friday and retreated further from its highest level since April 2022 touched the previous day. The US Dollar rallied across the board in reaction to the stellar US monthly employment details and turned out to be a key factor exerting downward pressure on the major. The headline NFP print showed that the economy added 517K jobs in January, surpassing even the most optimistic estimates. The previous month's reading was also revised higher to show an addition of 260K vacancies as compared to the 223K reported originally. Furthermore, the unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped from 3.5% in December to 3.4% - the lowest since May 1969. Average Hourly Earnings, meanwhile, rose 0.3% MoM and 4.4% over the past 12 months, down from 0.4% in December and 4.9%, respectively. Nevertheless, the data was strong enough to allow the Federal Reserve to keep hiking interest rates. It forced investors to scale back their bets for an imminent pause in the policy-tightening cycle. This, in turn, pushed the US Treasury bond yields sharply higher and triggered aggressive short-covering around the USD. Apart from this, the risk-off impulse was another factor that assisted the safe-haven buck to rebound swiftly from a nine-month low. However, the EUR/USD pair finds some support near the 1.0780 area, or over a two-week low touched during the Asian session on Monday. That said, the upside remains capped amid a turnaround in the sentiment surrounding the USD, which continues to draw support from rising US bond yields and a softer risk tone. This, in turn, warrants some caution before placing fresh bullish bets around the EUR/USD pair. Market participants now look forward to German Factory Orders, which, along with the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index and Retail Sales data, might influence the shared currency. Apart from this, the USD price dynamics should provide some meaningful impetus to the major without any relevant market-moving economic releases from the US. Technical Outlook From a technical perspective, any subsequent fall will likely find some support near the lower end of over a two-month-old ascending channel, currently around the 1.0725 region. This is closely followed by the 1.0700 mark and the 50-day SMA, near the 1.0680 zone. A convincing break below the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and set the stage for a further near-term corrective decline. The EUR/USD pair might then turn vulnerable to weaken further below the 1.0600 round figure and accelerate the slide towards the 1.0550 region. Spot prices could eventually drop to the 1.0500 psychological mark en route to the January 2023 swing low, around the 1.0480 area. On the flip side, the immediate hurdle is pegged near the 1.0855-1.0860 horizontal zone, above which the EUR/USD pair could climb to the 1.0900 mark. Some follow-through buying will negate any near-term negative bias and allow spot prices to reclaim the 1.1000 psychological mark with some intermediate resistance near the 1.0975-1.0980 region.

Introduction VolatilityMarkets suggests top quant trade ideas to take advantage of trending markets. Market summary XAGUSD last price was $ 22.7325. In the short term Silver has been accelerating lower. In the long term Silver has been accelerating lower. Over the past 20 days, the XAGUSD price increased 12 days and decreased 8 days. For every up day, there were 0.67 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 0.5734% The average return on days where the price decreased is -1.6533% Over the past 20 Days, the price has decreased by -6.33% percent. Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been -0.3165% percent. With the short term trend being the stronger of the two, we propose a short trade idea with an overnight time horizon. The trade idea Sell $ 165,156 USD of Silver, take profit at $ 22.4972 level with 25.0% odds for a $ 1,709 USD gain, stop out at $ 22.8701 with 49.97% odds for a $ 1,000 USD loss through O/N time horizon. Intraday Predictions XAG/USD trend analysis XAGUSD last price was $ 22.7325. The short term trend accelerating lower is stronger than the long term trend accelerating lower. This trade goes short when the last change was lower and accelerating. XAG/USD value analysis Over the past 20 days, the XAGUSD price increased 12 days and decreased 8 days. For every up day, there were 0.67 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 0.5734% The average return on days where the price decreased is -1.6533% Over the past 20 Days, the price has decreased by -6.33% percent. Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been -0.3165% percent. XAG/USD worst/best case scenario analysis Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won't trade for XAGUSD, is $ 22.3299 , and the best case scenario overnight is $ 23.1351 . levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade. We are 50% confident that $ 22.8701 could trade and that $ 22.4972 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability. Key Takeaways: Price today $ 22.7325 Over the past 20 days, the XAGUSD price increased 12 days and decreased 8 Days. For every up day, there were 0.67 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 0.5734%. The average return on days where the price decreased is -1.6533%. Over the past 20 Days, the price has decreased by -6.33% percent. Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been -0.3165% percent. Over the past 20 days, The price has on average been accelerating: $ 0.0383 per day lower. Over the last session, the price decreased by $ -0.747145. Over the last session, the price decreased by -3.2867 %. Over the last session, the price accelerated by $ 0.1725.

US Dollar: Mar '23 USD is Down at 101.435. Energies: Mar '23 Crude is Down at 75.84. Financials: The Mar '23 30 Year T-Bond is Up 3 ticks and trading at 131.28. Indices: The Mar '23 S&P 500 Emini ES contract is 108 ticks Lower and trading at 4164.25. Gold: The Apr'23 Gold contract is trading Down at 1930.00. Gold is 8 ticks Lower than its close. Initial conclusion This is not a correlated market. The dollar is Down, and Crude is Down which is not normal, and the 30 Year T-Bond is trading Higher. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Lower, and Crude is trading Lower which is not correlated. Gold is trading Lower which is not correlated with the US dollar trading Down. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. Currently Asia is trading Higher with th exception of the Hang Seng and Shanghai exchanges. All of Europe is trading Lower with the exception of the London exchange. . Possible challenges to traders today Average Hourly Earnings m/m is out at 8:30 AM EST. Major. Non-Farm Employment Change is out at 8:30 AM EST. Major. Unemployment Rate is out at 8:30 AM EST. Major. Final Services PMI is out at 9:45 AM EST. This is Major. ISM Services PMI is out at 10 AM EST. This is Major. Treasuries Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 30 year (ZB) to the 10 year (ZN). They work exactly the same. We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 10-year bond (ZN) and the S&P futures contract. The S&P contract is the Standard and Poor's, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa. Yesterday the ZN hit a High at around 12:30 PM EST. The S&P was trading Lower at around the same time. If you look at the charts below ZN gave a signal at around 12:30 PM and the S&P gave a signal at around the same time. Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. ZN hit a High at around 12:30 PM and migrated Lower. These charts represent the newest version of MultiCharts and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better. This represented a Short opportunity on the 10-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 20 plus ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $15.625. Please note: the front month for the ZN is now Mar '23. The S&P contract is now Mar' 23 as well. I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible. Charts courtesy of MultiCharts built on an AMP platform ZN - Mar 2023 - 2/2/23 S&P - Mar 2023 - 2/2/23 Bias Yesterday we gave the markets an Upside bias as both the USD and the Bonds were Lower Thursday morning, and this usually represents an Upside Day. We were mainly correct in that the S&P and Nasdaq traded Higher; the Dow traded Lower by 39 points. Given that today is Jobs Friday we will maintain a Neutral Bias as teh markets have never shown any sense of normalcy on this day. Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market. Commentary Yesterday we suggested an Upside Day but as the song goes two out of three ain't bad. The Dow traded Lower, but the S&P and Nasdaq did close Higher. Today is the first Non-Farm Payroll report for 2023, so the question is can this set the tone for the year? We will maintain a Neutral Bias as the markets have never shown any normalcy on this day. Hopefully it is positive and moves the markets forward.

In this Trading Opportunities Webinar, Neerav Yadav (Author of "Think with the Markets") has discussed charts of Forex, Commodities, Indices. All discussions are based on Advanced Elliott Wave, with detailed Wave counts as well standard Supply and Demand analysis. 34 trades discussed during last 33 webinars played out precisely.