EUR/USD Current price: 1.0758 Market participants await a US inflation update and central banks' announcements. Stock markets trade mixed, limiting demand for the US Dollar. EUR/USD aims south in a quiet start to the week, support at 1.0720. The EUR/USD pair trades uneventfully within familiar levels on Monday as caution reigns ahead of critical first-tier events. Investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Tuesday, with the United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) announcing their monetary policy decisions later in the week. Market participants believe easing inflationary pressures and tepid growth will result in policymakers deciding to maintain interest rates on hold at their last 2023 meetings. The US Dollar is marginally up at the beginning of the week, helped by an uptick in government bond yields, although gains are limited. In the meantime, stock markets trade mixed, with most indexes holding into the green and preventing safe-haven assets from rallying further. Finally, an empty macroeconomic calendar exacerbates range trading ahead of Wall Street's opening. EUR/USD short-term technical outlook The EUR/USD pair hovers around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.1275/1.0447 slump at 1.0761, with the risk skewed to the downside. The daily chart shows the pair is developing below its 20 and 200 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), while the 100 SMA converges with the mentioned Fibonacci level while maintaining a bearish slope. Technical indicators, in the meantime, remain near their recent lows within negative levels, although lacking directional strength. EUR/USD is bearish, according to technical readings in the 4-hour chart. The pair met intraday sellers at 1.0778, where a bearish 20 SMA converges with a flat 200 SMA. The Momentum indicator turned marginally lower at around its 100 level, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator aims lower at around 36, favoring a downward continuation. Friday's low at 1.0723 provides near-term support en route to the next Fibonacci support at 1.0645. Support levels: 1.0725 1.0680 1.0645 Resistance levels: 1.0810 1.0860 1.0900

EUR/USD stays on the back foot after closing the previous week in the red. Technical outlook suggests that sellers look to retain control. Investors could refrain from taking large positions ahead of this week's important events. EUR/USD registered losses for the second consecutive week but managed to stabilize at around 1.0750 early Monday. The pair's technical outlook shows that the bearish bias stays intact. Investors, however, could refrain from betting on an extended US Dollar (USD) rally ahead of this week's key macroeconomic data releases and central bank meetings. The upbeat November jobs report from the US helped the USD hold its ground ahead of the weekend on Friday. Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 199,000, more than the market expectation for an increase of 180,000, and the Unemployment Rate edged lower to 3.7% from 3.9%. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield gained nearly 2% after the data and the USD Index rose above 104.00.  Early Monday, the cautious market stance allows the USD to stay resilient against its rivals. At the time of press, US stock index futures were down between 0.1% and 0.2% on the day. On Tuesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the US will be watched closely by market participants ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy announcements on Wednesday. Later in the week, the European Central Bank (ECB) will conduct the last monetary policy meeting of the year. EUR/USD Technical Analysis EUR/USD closed the last six 4-hour candles below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator failed to recover above 40, reflecting the lack of buyer interest. 1.0700 (psychological level, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the latest uptrend) aligns as important support before 1.0660 (static level). On the upside, immediate resistance is located at 1.0760 (Fibonacci 50% retracement, 20-period SMA) ahead of 1.0780 (200-period SMA) and 1.0820 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement).

Key highlights EUR/USD struggled near 1.1020 and started a fresh decline. It traded below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.0860 on the 4-hour chart. EUR/USD technical analysis Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled below the 1.0880 support, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4 hours), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4 hours). It traded below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.0860 on the same chart. There was a drop below the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0656 swing low to the 1.1017 high. The pair is now consolidating above the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0656 swing low to the 1.1017 high. If there is a downside break below the 1.0740 support, the pair could drop toward the 1.0700 level. The next major support is 1.0650, below which the bears might take control. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the 1.0820 level. The next key resistance is near the 1.0880 level. The main resistance is near 1.0920. A close above the 1.0920 zone could open the doors for more upsides. The next stop for the bulls might be 1.1000.

Markets As we approach the end of the year, this week holds particular significance for macro observers. The three major central banks, often referred to as the "Big 3" – the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of England (BoE) – are all scheduled to convene. The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) report in the United States also stands out as one of the final top-tier economic releases from the world's largest economy. But as usual, most of the market attention bears down on the Federal Reserve meeting, where this time around, Jerome Powell is expected to face questions regarding the timeline for potential insurance cuts. Simultaneously, Christine Lagarde of the ECB may aim to temper speculation about aggressive rate cuts, with some speculating on cuts beginning as early as March or April. In the Eurozone, the notable speed at which inflation has receded has drawn the FX community's attention, where EURO bears are prowling once again. Even Isabel Schnabel, not known for her dovish views, acknowledged as much about the falls in inflation. The precarious state of the European economy, particularly with Germany facing significant challenges, adds another layer of caution to the current economic landscape. The region is on the edge of a potential recession, raising concerns about the overall health of the European economy. Despite Christine Lagarde's statement in October that "The fact that we are holding doesn't mean we will never hike again," the prevailing sentiment suggests skepticism within the market regarding the likelihood of any imminent rate hikes from the ECB. The Bank of England (BoE) finds itself in a challenging position, and the outcome of November's meeting was characterized as a "confused hold." Despite some positive developments on the inflation front, the overall outlook for the UK economy remains precarious. Policymakers are navigating a delicate balance between grappling with very high inflation and the potential for prolonged, underwhelming economic growth. In essence, the Bank of England is treading a tightrope, attempting to strike a balance that ensures stability in the face of divergent economic forces. The upcoming November US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is anticipated to show a 0.3% month-on-month increase in the core gauge, while the headline is expected to remain flat. On a year-on-year basis, core price growth is projected to stay at 4%, double the target. Notably, the October CPI report significantly boosted last month's stock and bond rally. While any disappointment (meaning a hotter-than-expected reading) in the November CPI report has the potential to reverse some of the market euphoria, particularly in the context of robust November Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) figures and an overshoot in Average Hourly Earnings (AHE), a significant upside surprise would be needed to alter the prevailing dovish narrative substantially. As we approach year-end, this week's developments and discussions among central banks and economic data releases will be the ultimate place-setters shaping market expectations. The Federal Reserve The Federal Reserve officials are currently grappling with a delicate balancing act, weighing two potential risks. On the one hand, there's the concern that they might act too slowly to ease policy, leading to an economic downturn under the strain of higher interest rates, resulting in significant job losses for millions of people. On the other hand, there's the fear of easing too early, which could result in inflation settling above 3%. This level of inflation is inconsistent with the Fed's 2% goal, which is designed to provide a level of precision and uniformity for businesses, consumers and market participants alike. This delicate balance reflects the challenge of navigating the complex economic landscape and making policy decisions that address employment and inflation concerns. The diminished pressure on prices has alleviated concerns at the Federal Reserve that consumers and businesses might start anticipating a prolonged period of high inflation, thereby contributing to its persistence. The slower wage growth has helped ease fears of that vicious "wage-price spiral," a scenario in which sustained inflation is fueled by a cycle of rising wages and prices. The combination of these factors has likely influenced the Fed's stance on inflation and provided some reassurance regarding the potential for an inflationary spiral and rate cuts. So, the most critical question facing the economy and financial market participants next year is not whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates but how quickly and deeply they will within two critical probable scenarios. First, the Fed would cut simply because the economy is slowing and unemployment is rising faster than expected. If the unemployment rate starts to rise in a way consistent with past recessions, investors will start running the historical Fed playbook and price in a rapid and more profound rate-cut scenario. A second, more tempting prospect for investors is that the Fed would cut even though the economy is doing fine...

Gold price is back under the $2,000 level, as sellers flex their muscles early Monday. US Dollar cheers a cautious mood, geopolitical risks, despite sluggish US Treasury bond yields. Gold price looks south, as the daily RSI flipped bearish after Friday's breakdown. Gold price is testing a 10-day low of $1,995 set on Friday, seemingly vulnerable early Monday, as the Big Central Banks week kicks off. The United States Dollar (USD) is clinging to its recovery gains amid a cautious market environment and steady US Treasury bond yields. Gold price looks to US inflation data after Nonfarm Payrolls beat Investors trade with caution at the start of the week that comprises key event risks for Gold price, including the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data and the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision and the updated projections. The upcoming US events are critical to the market's repricing of the Fed's interest rate expectations next year, especially after Friday's upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls data helped dial back Fed rate cut expectations for March. The latest US labor market report showed that the economy added 199K jobs in November, as against a 150K increase in October and above expectations of +180K. The Unemployment Rate in the United States unexpectedly dropped to 3.7%, compared with a 3.9% print. The data portrayed the continued tightness in the country's labor market, slashing March Fed rate cut bets to about 43% from 60% seen pre-data release. This helped the US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar extend their recovery momentum, accentuating the corrective downside in Gold price. Gold price fell to over one-week lows below $2,000, although managed to recapture the latter into the weekly close. Moving back to the price action so far this Monday, Gold sellers are benefiting from the underlying US Dollar strength, as risk sentiment remains tepid due to renewed worries about China's deflation and the ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and Yemeni Houthis. The Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen threatened to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea. On Friday, the French Navy's multi-mission frigate, Languedoc, downed two Houthi drones in the Red Sea off the coast of Yemen. Meanwhile, Rockets were fired on Friday at the US embassy in Baghdad. The potential horizontal escalation of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza to the sea lanes off the Gulf of Aden is keeping investors on the edge. Meanwhile, China's CPI fell the fastest in three years in November while factory-gate deflation deepened, suggesting rising deflationary pressures and dwindling economic recovery. Risk trends, Fed expectations and the US Dollar dynamics will continue dominating the Gold price amid a quiet US economic docket on Monday. Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart As observed on the daily chart, the tide has turned in favor of sellers after Gold price settled Friday below the rising trendline support at $2,024 and portrayed a breakdown. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator also drifted into the bearish zone, below the 50 level, pointing to more Gold price weakness ahead. The immediate support is seen at Friday's low of $1995, below which a sharp drop toward the $1,965 area cannot be ruled out. That price zone is the confluence of the November 20 low and the upward-pointing 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Before reaching the 50-day SMA cap, Gold sellers need to crack the static support at $1,980. Meanwhile, Gold buyers would need acceptance above the 21-day SMA at $2,005 on a daily candlestick closing basis to initial a brief recovery toward the $2,040 supply zone. The November 27 high of $2,018 could challenge bearish commitments beforehand.

USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs remain deeply overbought and a long way yet to drop. Long term targets to USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs as follows: USD/JPY : 146.07, 138.01, 133.26, 129.72. GBP/JPY: 181.06, 172.87, 168.89, 167.40. EUR/JPY: 157.78, 150.05, 145.89, 143.39. CAD/JPY: 107.74, 102.97, 100.21, 98.59. CHF/JPY: 164.20, 153.01, 146.39, 141.63. AUD/JPY: 95.49, 92.22, 90.78, 89.91. NZD/JPY: 88.58, 85.51, 83.98, 82.83. The topic of the Himino speech addressed the concept to overall changes in Japanese firms to Wages, Prices and the relationship to both in operation within CPI and the Japanese economy. While the Himino speech was an important supposition to monetary policy and the age old dilemma to wages and prices, Himino's journey was a pure speculative venture to how the Wage / Price concept possibly leaves what he termed the frozen state. Then the further concepts on how to understand  and view wages and prices in relation to households, corporates and Japanese financial institutions. Himino then walks us through the 4 stages of developments to price increases and decreases, labor costs, purchase and selling prices and wages. As brilliant as the BOJ presented themselves since 2016, Himino loses the Wage / Price concept in stage 1 as stage 1 is home to the not controllable price from the West through  Imported Inflation and the changing market price of Oil. How is Imported Inflation and Oil controlled without imposing a radical concept as Autarky in Japan's prices. As Himino stated in a number of instances, the complexities to Wages, Prices and satisfaction to prevent deflation may never materialize. Throughout the speech, Himino stated, if the wage/price concept was ever satisfied, the question to Monetary Easing must be revisited. Himino's big mouth by design or not intentioned, unleashed USD/JPY and cross pairs selling. The alarming aspect to the Himino speech was how a speculative speech turned into psychotic reports of end Negative interest rates, BOJ December was most vital, new monetary policy, Easing discontinued. The currency analysts and leading Website voices  of our day revealed they are beyond repair. Stage 1 Firms reflect higher import prices in selling prices. Stage 2 Firms reflect higher general price levels in wages. Stage 3 Firms reflect higher labor costs in selling prices. Stage 4 Firms' pricing policies become more diverse, facilitating firms to explore strategies of selling more.attractive products and services at commensurate prices, not just good products and services at low prices. The week GDP for Japan rose by 0.2 while websites reported a loss by 0.2. A higher negative = increase. The wildcards to the week are GBP/USD and USD/JPY as both begin the week in perfect neutrality. GBP/USD below must break 1.2515 and USD/JPY higher must clear 146.80. Oversold GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD begin the week deeply oversold as GBP/NZD sits at vital 2.0100 and EUR/NZD at 1.7300's. EUR/USD must break 1.0807 to range from 1.0807 to 1.0875. EUR/USD longs are assisted by oversold EUR/CHF, EUR/JPY, EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD and EUR/GBP. EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD trade deeply oversold. GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD remain locked in tiny ranges by many and massive supports below the current opening prices at 1.7034 and 1.4612. AUD/USD trades from 0.6541 to 0.6759 and no changes from the past 2 weeks. Same story for NZD/USD to trade from 0.6065 to 0.6260.