AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6763 Growth-related figures showed major economies are still struggling to recover. The US Dollar advanced throughout the second half of the day amid a souring market mood. AUD/USD maintains the bearish tone ahead of the Asian opening, support at 0.6730. The AUD/USD pair pierced the 0.6800 threshold on Tuesday, heading into the new day trading in the 0.6770 price zone. The US Dollar lost some ground at the beginning of the day but changed course during European trading hours, preserving its strength through the American session, as Wall Street traded with a soft tone while government bonds also lost ground. Growth-related data released these days indicated major economies are still struggling to recover. China released the December NBS Manufacturing PMI on Sunday, which unexpectedly contracted to 49. At the same time, the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI printed at 50.4, improving from 50.2 in November but missing expectations of 50.5. Meanwhile, similar data from Europe and America was released throughout the day, cooling expectations for soon-to-come rate cuts among major economies. There are no macroeconomic figures scheduled for the upcoming Asian session, focusing on US data, as the country will publish the December ISM Manufacturing PMI, November JOLTS Job Openings and the FOMC Meeting Minutes. AUD/USD short-term technical outlook From a technical point of view, AUD/USD is in a corrective slide. The daily chart shows technical indicators retreating from overbought levels, maintaining their downward slopes within positive levels. At the same time, a firmly bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) heads firmly north above the longer ones, providing dynamic support at around 0.6700. In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk skews to the downside. AUD/USD gained downward traction after failing to recover above a now bearish 20 SMA. The 100 and 200 SMAs keep heading higher, well below the current level, although technical indicators head south well below their midlines. Further slides could be expected on a break through 0.6730, the immediate support level. Support levels: 0.6730 0.6995 0.6960 Resistance levels: 0.6810 0.6845 0.6870

An exceptional end to the year has left markets with a lot to live up to in 2024, with huge rate cuts and a soft landing now among the things investors have priced in. The fantasy scenario for central bankers across the globe over the last couple of years is now a very real possibility but it's also far from guaranteed, despite how markets are now positioned. With so much now to live up to, investors may start asking themselves whether evaluations have become a little stretched. Everyone will naturally look to read too much into the first trading session of the year, even the week as a whole, but after an unusually strong end to the year that's probably not the best idea. If markets slightly pare gains in the first quarter I don't think that necessarily spells trouble for the year, especially if we see a couple of hiccups in the data. We've been spoiled over the last couple of months and while that may continue and see investors price in even more rate cuts this year on the belief central banks have overdone it, it may also not be so kind. The first test of the new year is the jobs report on Friday and it will be interesting to see how traders respond if we're given another promising batch of data. Oil prices ease as focus switches to demand Oil prices have edged lower again today but sit roughly in the middle of the range they traded within in December. Of course, that was quite a wide range given all the volatility around interest rate expectations, the economy, and the OPEC+ decision (and the eventual exit of Angola from the cartel). Focus will now shift back to the demand side and whether central banks can deliver the soft landing they've aimed for while hiking interest rates aggressively. Any outperformance for the global economy would ease the burden on OPEC+ at a time when compliance with quotas looks like it's going to be a struggle. Could interest rate expectations give gold another boost? Gold is hovering around the previous record highs before the price briefly surged in early December in light trade. The second half of last month was very promising on the back of lower interest rate expectations and favorable economic data. Traders may now be wondering whether investors have got carried away or if what now appears aggressive proves to be quite the opposite. Inflation accelerated higher much faster than anyone expected and it could well overshoot on the way down too, forcing central banks to cut rates much faster than currently expected. A new record high on the cards for bitcoin this year? It's been a decent start to the year for bitcoin, up more than 6% over the first couple of days already to trade at a 9-month high, above $45,000. The crypto community will likely feel there's a lot to look forward to this year, not to mention much less controversy than in 2023. If the first two days of the year is anything to go by, it may not be long until people are debating about record highs and beyond.

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0955 EU manufacturing output remained in contraction territory at the end of 2023. The focus this week falls on European inflation and American employment figures. EUR/USD reaches oversold conditions in the near term, maintains the bearish tone. The EUR/USD pair keeps retreating from the December peak at 1.1139, accelerating its slide through the 1.1000 threshold ahead of the United States (US) opening. The US Dollar gathers momentum in thin market conditions as market players return to their desks ahead of first-tier data that could set the tone for the rest of the month. On the one hand, the Eurozone will release inflation updates, while on the other, the US will unveil employment-related figures ahead of the December Nonfarm Payrolls report (NFP), scheduled for next Friday. Meanwhile, the macroeconomic calendar showed that "the Eurozone manufacturing sector remained stuck in contraction at the end of 2023, with output continuing to fall and factory job losses extending into a seventh successive month," according to the S&P Global/Hamburg Commercial Bank monthly report. The December Manufacturing PMI was confirmed at 44.4, slightly better than the previous 44.2. The German index was reported at 43.3. The American session will bring the US figure, which is expected to print at 48.2. EUR/USD short-term technical outlook The EUR/USD pair trades in the 1.0950 price zone and is at its lowest in almost two weeks. The daily chart shows prevalent selling interest, although the case for a continued slump is still unclear. Despite falling for a third consecutive day, the pair holds well above all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average  (SMA) heading sharply north above the longer ones while providing dynamic support at 1.0925. At the same time, technical indicators turned south, but correcting overbought conditions and still developing within positive levels. The near-term picture favors a continued slide. In the 4-hour chart, technical indicators head lower almost vertically, currently approaching oversold territory. Meanwhile, EUR/USD accelerated its slump below a mildly bearish 20 SMA, while a still bullish 100 SMA stands in the 1.0920 price zone, reinforcing the support area. Support levels: 1.0925 1.0880 1.0845   Resistance levels: 1.0990 1.1015 1.1050

EUR/USD fluctuates below 1.1050 on the first trading day of 2024. The near-term technical outlook points to a build-up of bearish momentum. The economic calendar will offer several high-tier data releases this week. EUR/USD stays on the back foot and trades modestly lower on the day below 1.1050 in the first European session of 2024. The near-term technical outlook suggests that the pair could extend its downward correction. Investors, however, could refrain from taking large positions ahead of this week's important macroeconomic data releases. EUR/USD rose more than 1% in December and registered gains for the second consecutive month as the US Dollar (USD) struggled to find demand, with investors anticipating a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut as early as March. On the other hand, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers made it clear that it was too early for them to think about a policy pivot. Later in the session, S&P Global will release revisions to December Manufacturing PMI for Germany, the Euro area and the US.  On Wednesday, ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings data will be featured in the US economic docket. Later in the day, the Fed will release the minutes of the December policy meeting. Inflation data from Germany and the Eurozone and the US jobs report could trigger big reactions in EUR/USD in the second half of the week. EUR/USD Technical Analysis EUR/USD stays below the mid-point of the ascending regression trend channel, currently located near 1.1050. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart declined below 50, reflecting a lack of buyer interest. In case 1.1050 stays intact as resistance, EUR/USD could stretch lower toward 1.1000 (psychological level, static level) and 1.0950 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest uptrend). On the upside, 1.1070 (20-period Simple Moving Average) aligns as interim resistance before 1.1100 (psychological level, static level) and 1.1140 (December 28 high).

Gold price kicks off 2024 in the green after booking the best year in three in 2023. The US Dollar tracks the US Treasury bond yields higher, as the mood remains mixed. Gold price looks to take out $2,100 as the daily technical setup remains in favor of buyers. Gold price has started off the first trading day of 2024 on the front foot, having eked out a 14% annual gain in 2023. Gold price is finding fresh demand early Tuesday, despite an uptick in the US Dollar (USD) and the US Treasury bond yields.   Gold price looks to top-tier US jobs data for fresh impetus Lingering Middle-East geopolitical risks keep investors on the edge starting out a new year, keeping the sentiment around the traditional safe-haven Gold underpinned. Citing accounts by American, Maersk, and Houthi officials, Reuters reported on Tuesday that US helicopters repelled an attack on Sunday by Iran-backed Houthi militants on a Maersk container vessel in the Red Sea, sinking three Houthi ships and killing 10 militants. Markets remain wary that this strife combined with the ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict could translate into a wider regional discord, scurrying for safety in havens such as Gold, the US Dollar, etc. Meanwhile, the US Dollar is also drawing support from an extended recovery in the US Treasury bond yields, as investors' focus now shifts toward the top-tier US economic data releases this week to revertebrate interest rate cut expectations from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) for this year. Markets are pricing in a 72% chance of a March Fed rate cut while for the May meeting stands at 84%. Further, the latest factory data from China suggested a fragile recovery, which could potentially hinder the region's broader revival in demand. The data failed to inspire risk sentiment, keeping the Gold price afloat. China's manufacturing activity shrank for a third straight month in December and weakened more than expected, the official data published by China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Sunday. On Tuesday, China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI showed a modest improvement to 50.8 in December. Looking ahead, the final manufacturing PMI data from Europe and the US will fill in a relatively quiet economic calendar at the onset of 2024, with all eyes glued to the key US jobs data due to be released all through this week. Wednesday will see the JOLTs Job Openings data while the ADP employment change and the Nonfarm Payrolls report will be published on Thursday and Friday respectively. Wednesday's Minutes of the Fed's December meeting will be also closely scrutinized for fresh insights on the central bank's interest rates outlook this year. Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart As observed on the daily chart, the rising trendline resistance, now at $2,090, will remain a tough nut to crack for Gold price on its renewed upside. Acceptance above the latter on a daily candlestick closing basis will challenge the $2,100 barrier. The next target for Gold buyers is envisioned at the all-time high of $2,144 should the uptrend sustain. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator has picked up its upside traction while above the midline, pointing to more gains ahead. Adding credence to the bullish outlook, the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is on the verge of cutting the 200-day SMA from below, portraying an impending Bull Cross. However, if Gold sellers fight back control, the initial support is seen at Friday's low of $2,058, below which the $2,050 round figure could be probed. The last line of defense for Gold buyers is aligned at the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,037.

EUR/USD broke above vital 1.1055 and 1.1057 to trade 1.1139 and just prior to the 5 year average at 1.1159. EUR/USD then traded lows to 1.1033. EUR/USD remains overbought from lower averages and despite overbought, EUR/USD cross pairs across the board trade deeply oversold. Oversold cross pairs applies to EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF, EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD. For the week, EUR/USD targets 1.0980 on a break of 1.1007. The target at 1.0980 trades just before big lines at 1.0953 and 1.0931. For January, shorts are located at any price around the 5 year average at 1.1159. EUR/USD line up as follows: 1.0899, 1.0891, 1.1061, 1.1159, 1.1275, 1.1522. Similiar to EUR/USD, GBP/USD traded to the 5 year average at 1.2832 then reversed. GBP/USD trades overbought while GBP cross pairs begin the week oversold. Oversold GBP cross pairs include GBP/CHF, GBP/JPY, GBP/NZD, GBP/AUD. GBP/USD's lower target is located just prior to 1.2653 on a break at 1.2710. GBP/USD's big lines below at 1.2500's are many and solid nor expected to break anytime soon. GBP/USD current range trades from 1.2584, 1.2596, 1.2785, 1.2832, 1.3154, 1.3557. EUR/USD and GBP/USD trade dead center to historic ranges yet overbought. Both overbought EUR/USD and GBP/USD trade contradictionary to oversold cross pairs. A lower EUR/USD and GBP/USD would create a powerful position to align cross pairs for longs to GBP and EUR across the board. USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs remains the big profit trades for 2024 and the same situation  as 2023. Preference for USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs is due to ability to trade freely in wide ranges as JPY averages trade far and wide. USD/JPY and JPY cross trade deeply oversold. USD/JPY targets middle 143.00's. Overall, USD/JPY's 144.00 line is falling against current prices. Long term targets hold as posted December 10th. USD/JPY : 146.07, 138.01, 133.26, 129.72. GBP/JPY: 181.06, 172.87, 168.89, 167.40. EUR/JPY: 157.78, 150.05, 145.89, 143.39. CAD/JPY: 107.74, 102.97, 100.21, 98.59. CHF/JPY: 164.20, 153.01, 146.39, 141.63. AUD/JPY: 95.49, 92.22, 90.78, 89.91. NZD/JPY: 88.58, 85.51, 83.98, 82.83. AUD/USD remains overbought and trades from 0.6651, 0.6780, 0.6952 and the 5 year average at 0.6994. AUD/USD requires a break at 0.6780 to target lower prices. NZD/USD lower must break 0.6281 to trade the range from 0.6281 to 0.6162. EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD EUR/AUD trades massive oversold and sits just above vital averages at 1.6081, 1.5972 at the 5 year average and 1.5935. A break of current averages is not expected and long targets are located at middle 1.6300's. GBP/AUD also trades deeply oversold from current range 1.8414 and 1.8579 to 1.8945. Good target at 1.8000's is easily achievable on a break of 1.8760. Long is the onlt available strategy for EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD. USD/CHF and CHF cross pairs all trade deeply oversold. DXY is the exclusive driver to currency markets as DXY dropped 700 pips in the past 3 months. DXY recovery higher contains vital averages at 101.00's and every 100 pips. Same DXY story as we've seen in the past year as averages build every 100 pips on the up and downside price moves. USD/CAD trades oversold and the 5 year average is located at 1.3145. USD/CAD ranges from 1.3145, 1.3207, 1.3311 and 1.3441. EUR/NZD trades oversold and overall inside a range from 1.7698 to 1.7362 and 1.7143. GBP/NZD ranges from 2.0252 to 2.0020. EUR/EM Best shorts for the week are EUR/CZK, EUR/INR, EUR/KRW, USD/EM Brest trades: USD/ZAR, USD/MXN, USD/MYR, USD/RON. The vast majority of EM currencies are either locked in  small  ranges or USD/EM Vs EUR/EM are in contention to both as oversold or overbought.