While the calendar's second half of the year started last Friday, it will probably not begin in the markets until the upcoming US jobs data is released this Friday. It is worth sorting out where the US currency currently stands on the forex market. The Dollar Index has climbed to a 20-year high in the middle and at the end of June after a 12-month upward move. That's an impressive age for a currency market, but it still takes more than old age to change a direction. To assess the chances of a trend reversal in the USD, investors and traders should now pay closer attention to the labour market data and the Fed's reaction. Weak employment growth data could confirm the current level of the Dollar Index as unbreakable. However, we shall still have to wait for data assessments from the Fed to confirm this. However, another option is more likely. High inflation could stimulate the recovery of the labour market as more and more people will look for earning opportunities. This would pave the way for another 75-point key rate hike by the Fed in the second half of July, allowing interest rates to reach neutral levels in the next 6-8 months. That is much faster than developed country competitors will do, forming the conditions for further strengthening the Dollar. Another attempt to take the 105 level by storm will likely be more successful. A corrective pullback in May from these heights was followed by a much shallower retreat in June, reflecting a strengthening of the bulls' position. As has been the case over the last year, significant technical support is the 50-day moving average. Should the week's outcome follow the first bearish scenario, investors and traders should keep an eye on the 103.5 area. A sharp pullback below that would be a significant reversal signal. However, the index will likely touch new highs before the reversal

EUR/USD - 1.0432 Despite euro's selloff to a 2-week bottom at 1.0367 in New York Friday, subsequent strong short-covering rise to 1.0462 in Europe yesterday suggests choppy trading above May's 5-year trough at 1.0350 would continue and range trading is seen before prospect of another fall but below 1.0350/60 needed to extend to 1.0320/30. On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0462 would risk stronger retracement towards 1.0488, break, 1.0505/10. Data to be released on Tuesday : New Zealand business confidence, Australia AIG construction index, services PMI, RBA interest rate decision, Japan Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI, China Caixin manufacturing PMI, France industrial output, SnP global services PMI, Italy SnP global services PMI, Germany SnP global services PMI, EU SnP global services PMI, UK SnP global services PMI. Canada building permits, US durables ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders and durables ex-transport.

Summary Total construction spending dropped 0.1% during May. Overall spending is now up 9.7% on a year-over-year basis through May. Residential spending, which posted a 0.2% gain in May, is up 18.7% over the past year. By contrast, nonresidential outlays which fell 0.6% over the month are up just 1.0% over the past year as of May. Read the full article

The second half has picked up where the first one left off, as stocks fall and the dollar rises. Stocks in the red as second half begins “The losses of the first half do not seem to have created any immediate desire to buy the dip it seems. An initial recovery for US markets from the lows of the morning has given way to more losses, and even the prospect of a long weekend in the US hasn’t tempted the dip buyers in. There is a growing unease about the summer, especially with a potentially very gloomy Q2 earnings season nearly upon us. It really does look like we have another big leg lower before this bear market is done.” Dollar nearly back at June highs “Given the pessimism that seems to prevail at present, it is hardly surprising that the dollar is enjoying fresh safe haven flows. Even without strong inflation the greenback has plenty to recommend it as thoughts turn to global recession, but the solidly of price rises means that the dollar’s appeal is as strong as it was at the beginning of the year.”

XAG/USD Spot silver broke through psychological $20 support for the first time in two years and hit the lowest since July 2020 on Friday. The metal remains under increased pressure for three months on global economic and geopolitical turmoil which threatens of further deterioration that could push many economies into recession, denting metal’s strong industrial exposure. Bearish techs on daily chart add to negative signals generated on break through pivotal supports at: $20.66 (50% retracement of $11.23/$30.10); 20.42 (200WMA) and psychological $20 level, though weekly close below $20 is needed to confirm and open way for extension towards target at $18.44 (Fibo 61.8%). Silver is also on track for the fifth straight weekly drop, with this week’s fall being the biggest since the third week of June 2021 and large bearish weekly candle is expected to heavily weigh on the action in coming sessions. Caution on oversold conditions on daily chart which signal possible price adjustment, with upticks to offer better opportunities to re-join bearish market. Res: 20.00; 20.42; 20.66; 20.93. Sup: 19.37; 19.00; 18.44; 17.75.

The upcoming stagflation might be less severe than in the 1970s. So is the Fed’s reaction, which could mean good news for gold. There are many terrifying statements you can hear from another person. One example is: “Honey, we need to talk!” Another is: “I’m from the government and I’m here to help.” However, the scariest English word, especially nowadays, is “stagflation.” Brrr! I’ve explained it many times, but let me remind you that stagflation is a combination of economic stagnation and high inflation. This is why it’s a nightmare for central bankers as they should ease monetary policy to stimulate the economy and simultaneously tighten it to curb inflation. Although we haven’t fallen into recession yet, the pace of GDP growth has slowed down recently. According to the World Bank’s report Global Economic Prospects from June 2022, “the global economy is in the midst of a sharp growth slowdown” and “growth over the next decade is expected to be considerably weaker than over the past two decades.” The U.S. growth is expected to slow to 2.5 percent in 2022, 1.2 percentage points lower than previously projected and 3.2 percentage points below growth in 2021. This is why more and more experts raise concerns about stagflation similar to what happened in the 1970s. So far, employment remains strong, but the misery index, which is the sum of the unemployment rate and inflation rate, is already relatively high (see the chart below) and could continue to rise if economic activity deteriorates further. So, it seems that the consensus view is that stagflation is likely, but the key question is how bad it will be, or how similar it will be to the stagflation of the 1970s. As the chart below shows, that period was pretty bad. The inflation rate stayed above 5% for a decade, reaching almost 15% in early 1980. Meanwhile, there was a long and deep recession in 1973-1975 and the subsequent two in the 1980s, triggered by Volcker’s monetary tightening that was necessary to curb high inflation. Similarities are quite obvious. First, the economic slowdown came after the previous recession and rebound. Second, supply shocks. Supply disruptions caused by the pandemic and by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine resemble the oil shocks of the 1970s. Third, the burst of inflation comes after prolonged period of easy monetary policy and negative real interest rates. According to the World Bank, “global real interest rates averaged -0.5 percent over both the 1970-1980 and the 2010-2021 periods”. Fourth, consumer inflation expectations are rising significantly, which increases the risk of their de-anchoring, as in the 1970s. As the chart below shows, consumers now expect inflation to run at 5.4% over the next twelve months, according to the University of Michigan survey, the highest level since 1981. However, the World Bank also points out important differences. First, the magnitude of commodity price jumps has been smaller than in the 1970s. Oil prices are still below the peaks from those years, especially in real terms, while the economy is much more energy-dependent. Second, the fiscal stance is tighter now. In the 1970s, fiscal policy was very easy, while now it’s expected to tighten, which could help to curb inflation. According to the CBO, the federal budget deficit will shrink to $1.0 trillion in 2022 from $2.8 trillion last year. Third, the M2 money stock M2 ballooned after the pandemic by 40% in just two years. So, the increase in the money supply was much more abrupt, although it was rather a one-time outburst than a constant fast pace of money supply growth as it was in the 1970s (see the chart below). Thus, the pattern of inflation could be similar. Fourth, contemporary economies are much more flexible with the weaker position of trade unions, and income and price policies (like interest or price controls) are not popular today. It allows a faster response of supply to rising prices and reduces the likelihood of price-wage spirals. The fifth difference mentioned by the World Bank is more credible monetary policy frameworks and better-anchored inflation expectations. Although true, I would be cautious here, as the Fed remains behind the curve and people could quickly lose confidence in the central bank while inflation expectations could easily de-anchor. For me, the two crucial differences are the much higher levels of both private and public debt today compared to the 1970s (see the chart below) and less political willingness to combat inflation. Yes, Powell could have a laser focus on addressing inflation right now, but I seriously doubt whether he will stick with significantly raising interest rates, especially when the economy starts to falter. So, what are the conclusions and implications for the gold market? Well, stagflation is indeed likely, as I expect a further economic slowdown next year, which will be...